In the hours, and even days, before kickoff for Sunday’s Big Game, eagle-eyed users on X noted something interesting—no, not a surprise addition to the injury report or an unexpected healthy scratch; curious betting behavior on Kalshi, specifically around the halftime show (which as we noted in a previous piece, is one unintentional benefit of prediction markets; a trend toward wagering on off-the-field events).
Multiple accounts with what seemed to be inside information about Bad Bunny’s halftime performance placed monster bets on Kalshi and Polymarket. One user placed $15,000 on what the first song would be, and proceeded to hit almost the entire setlist. Another account wagered $500,000 on Lady Gaga making an appearance. A wallet that had been created just days before the game and traded exclusively on halftime show markets hit every single prediction of who would or would not perform aside from Cardi B (which was more of a technicality than anything as she made an appearance dancing but did not perform vocally).
The masses immediately called for increased transparency and enforcement of those who are deemed to be trading on prediction markets with insider information. But perhaps most importantly, what we didn’t hear from fans: jeers that a call (or lack thereof) made by the refs seemed to suspiciously sway the game against the spread; whispers from frustrated fans that the game may be “scripted”. While that may be due to how the game itself played out, platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket may be unknowingly driving corruption off the field and into markets that don’t affect the outcome of a game; like a halftime show, for instance.
For anyone outside Kalshi’s compliance team, there’s no telling whether these prediction market accounts that clearly benefited from inside information were created by NFL employees, talent agency mailroom grunts, members of Bad Bunny’s or another performer’s entourage, last-minute halftime show extras or just friends and family of a sharp-eyed opportunistic stadium worker who stumbled upon a printed set list. For many, it doesn’t seem to matter who it is, because making money from information inaccessible to the general public seems inherently unfair.
But while we’re not rooting for anyone to break the terms of an NDA or even to cross the extremely broad lines drawn in Kalshi’s “Rulebook,” if prediction markets prove to preserve on-the-field fairness by effectively shifting the bulk of insider action to spaces outside actual game action (like halftime shows), we may be better served by letting the play.
